Ethan Mollick — tisram

One Useful Thing 2026-05-27-2

Choosing to Stay Human

Two RCTs from the same Wharton-adjacent research team flipped on a single design variable: roughly 1,000 Turkish high schoolers using ChatGPT-as-assistant underperformed AI-free controls at test time, while roughly 1,000 Taipei high schoolers using AI-as-tutor scored 0.15 SD higher on an AI-free final (roughly 6-9 months of additional schooling). Same AI, same population shape, opposite cognitive outcomes from problem-solver versus problem-poser configuration. The cognitive surrender debate has been miscast as a willpower problem; the actual lever sits at the procurement layer, currently owned by product managers optimizing engagement metrics rather than the L&D, HR, or operations leaders whose teams will live with the cognitive residue.

# tags

cognitive-surrender ai-cognitive-impact friction-preservation harness-as-moat enterprise-ai-adoption education-ai verifier-bottleneck ai-cognitive-dependency ai-cognitive-sovereignty ai-and-human-capacity personal-learning ai-literacy turanu-advisory turanu-labs whitespace-adjacent mollick wharton one-useful-thing

The New York Times 2026-05-03-3

Klein NYT Opinion: Why the AI Job Apocalypse (Probably) Won't Happen

Klein at NYT Opinion gives the credentialed reader permission to relax on AI displacement: economist consensus says relational-sector absorption and Jevons paradox handle it, citing Imas, Maksymov, and Mollick as the academic-skeptic chorus. The piece is the anti-displacement narrative reaching comfort-literature stage in the same outlet that ran the SF Insider doom piece three days earlier; both sides of the debate are now mainstream-acceptable in NYT Opinion within 72 hours. The genuinely contrarian add is buried at the back: 8 million displaced workers is politically harder to handle than 80 million, because mass shocks generate Covid-style support architecture while partial shocks generate China-shock abandonment.

# tags

ai-displacement ai-labor-displacement ai-economics ai-political-economy narrative-analysis jevons-paradox white-collar-generalization consensus-migration relational-sector nyt advisory turanu

The Atlantic 2026-05-02-2

So, About That AI Bubble

Anthropic's run rate doubled from $14B to $30B in two months, the METR study reversed from -20% to +20% developer productivity with current tooling, and some firms are now spending 10% of total engineering labor cost on AI subscriptions: the revenue story is no longer contested. The load-bearing extension claim, MIT's projection that AI completes 80-95% of white-collar tasks by 2029, rests on a linear extrapolation from two data points and an s-curve that doesn't bend. That's the overshoot zone: coding gains are real and documented; legal, marketing, and consulting at the same velocity is a 2027-2028 question, and the piece elides gross margins entirely, which remains the actual bear thesis.

# tags

ai-economics ai-bubble agentic-ai-viability anthropic claude-code ai-coding-tools ai-capex evaluation-infrastructure narrative-capex-feedback pilot-to-scale mythos the-atlantic white-collar-generalization consensus-migration